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Bull Math Biol ; 84(8): 75, 2022 06 20.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1899295

RESUMEN

Running across the globe for nearly 2 years, the Covid-19 pandemic keeps demonstrating its strength. Despite a lot of understanding, uncertainty regarding the efficiency of interventions still persists. We developed an age-structured epidemic model parameterized with epidemiological and sociological data for the first Covid-19 wave in the Czech Republic and found that (1) starting the spring 2020 lockdown 4 days earlier might prevent half of the confirmed cases by the end of lockdown period, (2) personal protective measures such as face masks appear more effective than just a realized reduction in social contacts, (3) the strategy of sheltering just the elderly is not at all effective, and (4) leaving schools open is a risky strategy. Despite vaccination programs, evidence-based choice and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions remains an effective weapon against the Covid-19 pandemic.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Máscaras , Anciano , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles , República Checa/epidemiología , Humanos , Conceptos Matemáticos , Modelos Biológicos , Pandemias/prevención & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Instituciones Académicas
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